March 16th- The “Where’s Manny Going?” saga ended with a return to the Dodgers. Randy Johnson changed addresses within the division. The Padres had a questionable off-season.
It’s day 5 in TPFSports “6 Divisions, 6 Days” previews, and today we cover the topsy-turvy National League West.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Key Additions: 2B Felipe Lopez, C Luke Carlin, SP John Garland, RP Tom Gordon, RP Scott Schoeneweiss
Key Losses: OF Adam Dunn, 2B Orlando Hudson, OF Jeff Salazar, SS David Eckstein, SP Randy Johnson, RP Juan Cruz, RP Brandon Lyon
Despite a quiet offseason that saw an exodus of talent from Arizona, the Diamondbacks are poised to make a run at the division title. The team is counting on their core of young potential to make up for production lost with the departures of Randy Johnson, Adam Dunn, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon. The strength of the club will be the front of their rotation. Arizona’s top three starters are as good a trio as you will find in the majors. Perennial Cy Young candidate Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are known commodities around the league, but 24-year-old Max Scherzer is the player to watch. Like a lot of the Diamondbacks young players, Scherzer has post-season award caliber potential. Much like the Dodgers though, the rotation sees a significant drop when you get to the four and five starters. The threesome of Doug Davis, Yusimero Petit and offseason acquisition Jon Garland will have to step up if Arizona is to make a run towards the division crown. If they fall just short, the front office will have to wonder just how wise it was to allow The Big Unit to sign for so cheaply within the division.
The bullpen looks more like the back-end of the rotation than the front, as the departed Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon will be missed. Chad Qualls should have no issues taking over the closer role from Lyon, and Jon Rauch and Tony Pena will alternate as dependable set-up men. The rest of the pen will undoubtedly lead to many disappearing leads and expanding deficits. Off-season signee and 21-year-veteran Tom Gordon has seen a rise in ERA correspond with declining velocity in recent years.
Arizona’s farm system may not be loaded now, but it has stocked the major league roster with plenty of talent. The two biggest names to reach the big league club are Justin Upton and Chris Young. The 21-year-old Upton has true superstar and MVP potential as a gifted athlete with tremendous baseball instincts. If 2008 was merely impressive, 2009 will see him announce himself as baseball’s next superstar. Comparisons to Ken Griffey, Jr. aren’t nearly as crazy as they might seem at first glance. The 25-year-old Young has come with comparable expectations but has been a bit of a disappointment thus far in his career. He racked up 165 Ks in 2008 en route to posting an OBP well below the league average. He did battle a wrist injury for a significant portion of the season, but it remains to be seen if that was a cause of his shortcomings or simply an excuse. If Young’s penchant for free swinging is disappointing, then Mark Reynolds’ is disturbing. Last season Reynolds’ set the major league record for punch-outs with a staggering 204. He provides neither the home runs nor the OBP to support such a total. Combining that with his at-times brutal defense at third and his potential takes a serious hit.
Player To Watch: Max Scherzer
In 2008, Scherzer whiffed more than 10 hitters per 9 innings in his first 56 big-league innings, and that was without truly refined secondary offerings. With a mid-90s fastball and improving slider and change-up, he is poised to be the 2009 edition of Edinson Volquez. Of course this all dependant on the club allowing him start as opposed to relegating him to a set-up role in the bullpen, which would be a tremendously costly waste of talent.
Prediction: Second Place
Baring an epic breakout from Young or Upton or career years from Davis and Garland, the Diamondbacks will come up just shy of a division title for the second consecutive season.
Colorado Rockies
Key Additions: CF Carlos Gonzalez, LF Matt Murton, SP Jason Marquis, SP Greg Smith, RP Huston Street
Key Losses: LF Matt Holliday, CF Willie Taveras, RP Brian Fuentes, RP Luis Vizcaino, RP Matt Herges
Rocktober seems like forever ago. The Rockies are so far removed from their magical 2007 run to the World Series that a .500 season would be a welcome sight. The offseason in Colorado was highlighted by the confusing trade of Matt Holliday to Oakland for what seems like spare parts in return. Unless closer Houston Street rebounds or center-field prospect Carlos Gonzalez becomes a breakout star, the fans will long regret losing out on even a single season of Holliday’s production.
There isn’t much to look forward to in 2009, but the offense should be the brightest light in a dimming arrangement. Todd Helton’s return should provide much needed OBP, but his declining power won’t come close to making up the loss of Holliday’s bat. Fan favorite and future of the franchise Troy Tulowitzki will look to build on the .327/.389/.469 line he posted after his second trip to the DL. Last year’s breakout star Chris Iannetta will continue to establish himself as one of the best young catches in baseball. All told, the Rockies offense will be among the league leaders in runs scored, but for a lineup hitting in Coors Field, they won’t produce nearly enough to counter a pitching staff that will be among the worst in baseball.
Losing starter Jeff Francis to injury is a huge blow to the rotation and will put even more stress on pitchers who would struggle to find jobs as spot starters on most other teams. Aaron Cook’s will find 2008’s success difficult to duplicate in 2009 and his ERA will see significant inflation as he can only keep up the low-strikeout magic act for so long in Coors Field. Ubaldo Jimenez’s electric arm will be the best on the staff, and his performance in late 2008 gave fans glimpses of his true ace potential. After these two the situation is hideous. The final three rotation spots will be filled by innings eaters with marginal upside, something regrettable even if it were only the fifth spot. While the farm system has many bright spots on the horizon, none of them are ready to contribute in 2009, and the Rockies staff this year will be the worst in baseball.
Player To Watch: Seth Smith
It looks like blue-chip prospect Dexter Fowler will begin the season in Triple-A, pushing Carlos Gonzalez to centerfield and opening up left field for Smith. The 26-year-old won’t make anyone forget about Holliday, but he’ll be a solid stop gap until Folwer returns and moves Gonzalez back to left. A player without a single elite ability, Smith can at least claim competence at all of them. He won’t match the mashing from his days in Colorado Springs, but he should improve on last year’s sub-.800 OPS.
Prediction: Fourth Place
A disappointing 2008 will be followed by an even more disappointing 2009. Declining offense and pitching will see the Rockies competing with the Padres for fourth place instead of the Diamondbacks and Dodgers for first.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Key Additions: 2B Orlando Hudson, C Brad Ausmus, RP Guillermo Mota, SP Randy Wolf, SP Claudio Vargas, SP Jeff Weaver, SP Sean Estes
Key Losses: 2B Jeff Kent, CF Andruw Jones, SP Derek Lowe, SP Brad Penny, RP Scott Proctor, RP Takashi Saito
It’s not often one player can literally be the difference between making and missing the postseason, but Manny Ramirez was just that in 2008. In 2009, even though he won’t be close to the offensive force he was post-trade, the difference in value between him and Juan Pierre or Delwyn Young will be between three and four wins in 2009. Those wins will be incredibly important in a division which looks to be the tightest race in the league. The biggest factor in the Dodgers contention will be the performance from their starting pitchers. Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Clayton Kershaw are a formidable trio at the front, but the rotation is backloaded with uncertainty. They signed Randy Wolf to eat innings, but he’ll do little more than that in L.A. Anything close to the league average ERA would be a bonus. The fifth starter is still undecided midway through spring training, as the team is now considering the addition of Pedro Martinez to fill the role. If they don’t land Martinez, the starts will be spread amongst Jason Smith, Eric Stutls and offseason additions Claudio Vargas, Shawn Estes and Jeff Weaver. None of these options offer a great deal of value and the Dodgers would love to see James McDonald progress enough to take over the job in the second half of the season. McDonald is one of the top arms in the system and his brilliant showing in the 2008 postseason gave notice to what the future holds.
The bullpen lost dominant closer Takashi Saito to free agency, but Jonathan Broxton should move in to the role seamlessly. The 25-year-old flamethrower had a successful first foray into the role when Saito’s elbow caused him to miss the end of 2008. With the spot clearly his in 2009, Broxton will graduate to one of the best closers in the league. The rest of the pen shapes up to be respectable and reliable if not exactly dominant. Hung Chi-Kuo will be counted on as the set-up man, but beyond that the team will hope for consistency from veteran addition Guillermo Mota and youngsters Cory Wade and Scott Elbert.
The lineup is packed with young stars and would be very good without Ramirez. With Manny, the offense is potentially lethal. If future cornerstones Andre Ethier, James Loney and Matt Kemp continue to progress, Los Angeles having the best offense in the National League isn’t out of the question. The offseason resigning of Rafael Furcal was huge, and having a player of his caliber in the leadoff spot changes everything. It wouldn’t take much to improve on 2008, as the Dodgers gave more AB to the offensively inept Pierre than to any other player. Coming off a season cut way to short, the return of Furcal also allows Russell Martin and Matt Kemp to move back to more their traditional spots in the order. One of the best offseason deals in all of baseball was made when the Dodgers signed former Diamondback Orlando Hudson to an incentive-laden 1-year contract. He’ll provide a better bat than Blake DeWiit and solid if no longer Gold Glove caliber defense.
Player To Watch: Andre Ethier
While he may not project as the next Manny, Ethier was as important to L.A.’s 2008 run as Ramirez. Manny may have stolen the headlines, but Ethier’s .368/.448/.649 line from August 1st onrward was far more eye opening. He finally broke through a crowded outfield and ripped playing time from the more highly priced Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre. Expecting a line similar to his late-season run is Hollywood fantasy, but an OPS approaching .900 would be right in line with the 26 year old’s continuing improvement.
Prediction: First Place
The Dodgers will battle all season with the Diamondbacks for NL West supremacy, but in the end, I like L.A.’s youth more than Arizona’s, at least in 2009. The Manny-led Dodgers will make their first back-to-back appearances in the postseason in over a decade.
San Francisco Giants
Key Additions: SS Edgar Renteria, SP Randy Johnson, RP Jeremy Affeldt, RP Justin Miller, RP Bob Howry
Key Losses: SS Omar Vizquel, RP Kevin Correia, RP Tyler Walker
The players might be different but the 2009 Giants will look an awful lot like the 2008 Giants. The season will once again see great pitching supported by an inept offense. Much like the first two teams in this division, the Giants feature a very solid starting rotation led by a trio of elite arms. Last season’s NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum headlines a staff that also features Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito and future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson. It wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest that San Francisco boasts the best starting rotation in the National League, and only the Braves and Cubs could put up a strong case. Lincecum established himself as one of the best arms on the planet in 2008, but the Giants would be wise to curb his high pitch counts. Overusing his immense ability during lost seasons might come back to haunt them once the stocked farm system begins to produce major league talent.
The bullpen is almost completely devoid of name recognition, but will make up for a lack of dominance with reliability and depth. 2008 All-Star Brian Wilson anchors a pen that includes young side-arming righty Sergio Romo. Romo’s almost unlimited array of pitches allows his less-than-dominating stuff to continually leave hitters baffled and off balance. The bullpen will see tremendous improvement with the additions of Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt over the winter. Affeldt has been one of the league’s most underrated relief talents, as he’s posted ERAs of 3.51 and 3.33 the past two years, both spent in hitter friendly environments (Colorado and Cincinnati). These additions fix one of the club’s biggest holes from a season ago.
The same cannot be said for the club’s biggest hole: the offense. Replacing Omar Vizquel with Edgar Renteria will provide a marginal boost in production, but won’t be anywhere near enough to improve on an offense than ranked second to last in the league in runs scored a year ago. There really isn’t a whole lot else to say about the offense beyond acknowledging its ineptness. That Bengie Molina is expected to hit clean-up with an OPS far short of .800 says all you need to know about the situation in San Francisco. GM Brian Sabean has assembled a great rotation that will only get better in coming seasons, but unless he wants to waste season after season of dominant pitching he needs to find a couple power bats soon.
Player To Watch: Pablo Sandoval
Built like a rhinoceros but nearly as graceful, the 22-year-old Sandoval was born to swing a bat. What he lacks in patience he makes up for with a Vlad-esque ability to drive a pitch thrown anywhere near the plate. He’s better suited for an AL club, as he has no defensive position that he is even decent at, but he will man third base in 2009. The Giants will put up with his defense as long as he is among their best hitters, and that should be the case for about the next decade.
Prediction: Third Place
The elite pitching staff can only carry an impotent offense so far. The Giants won’t be embarrassingly bad in 2009, but they’re still a long way from contending for a division crown.
San Diego Padres
Key Additions: C Henry Blanco, SS David Eckstein, OF Cliff Floyd, RP Chris Britton, RP Kevin Correia
Key Losses: C Josh Bard, C Michael Barrett, SS Khalil Greene, RP Trevor Hoffman
The Padres had a brutal winter. The rough separation from all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman and the highly publicized and unsuccessful attempts to trade ace Jake Peavy left many fans uncertain of the team’s direction or commitment to winning. Looking at the club, it’s hard to blame them.
The offense is anchored by smooth swinging lefty Adrian Gonzalez, who remains one of the games most unheralded talents. The first baseman will again mash 30-plus homers to go with 30-plus doubles. Beyond Gonzalez, the lineup has a bit of potential, as high-upside hitters Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley will continue to take steps forward. Beyond that the team is comprised of aging stopgaps and low-ceiling players with limited upside. Center fielder Jody Gerut is one player on the team primed for a productive 2009, especially if he can approach 600 AB.
The starting rotation has two guarantees and a boatload of maybes. Peavy is always among the best pitchers in baseball, even if Petco Park helps that, and he will continue the trend this season. The towering Chris Young isn’t the all-star he was in 2007, but he’ll be the only other bright spot on the staff. The last three spots might be divvied fairly equally among as many as six pitchers, including Mark Prior, Cha Seung Baek, Josh Greer and Kevin Correia. Prior’s history suggests that he might be the only one to contribute anything significant to the staff.
The one strong suit of the team should be the bullpen. Heath Bell takes over for the departed Hoffman and should be as successful in the role as the future Hall Of Famer has been the last couple seasons. Cla Meredith and Justin Hampson will combine to provide manager Bud Black with solid match-up options in late game situations. That a potentially league average bullpen can be viewed as a team’s bright spot says a lot about San Diego’s immediate future.
Player To Watch: Chase Headley
Despite a disappointing freshman campaign, Headley remains the Padres only prospect under 25 who will provide significant contributions in 2009. His unusually low walk-rate in 2008 should be seen as an outlier, as he showed very good on base skills at every minor league stop. He also has 25+ HR power potential. That combination makes Headley a prime candidate for an explosive 2009 season.
Prediction: Fifth Place
The team’s tumultuous front office and ownership situation will be reflecting on the field as the Padres struggle to avoid another season in the cellar of the NL West.
Tuesday's Preview: The National League East
Wednesday's Preview: The American League East
Thursday's Preview: The National League Central
Friday's Preview: The American League Central
Tomorrow’s Preview: The American League West
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