March 13th- Trying to keep up with the storms that brew over the Midwest isn’t limited to watching the Weather Channel. While the forecast may call for rain or snow, it’s always red hot when it comes to supremacy for the American League Central.
Which team will survive the storm in 2009? TPFSports gives you the inside scoop on which way the winds will shift, as we enter day four in our "6 Divisions, 6 Days" preview.
Chicago White Sox
Key Additions: IF Wilson Betemit, 1B Ben Broussard, RHP Bartolo Colon.
Key Losses: C Toby Hall, SS Orlando Cabrera, 3B Joe Crede, IF Juan Uribe, OF/IF Nick Swisher, OF Ken Griffey Jr., RHP Javier Vazquez, LHP Boone Logan, LHP Horacio Ramirez.
The White Sox - winners of the 2008 AL Central Division will try to use that experience to jump start them into the 2009 campaign, and hopefully get them farther than just the four games they played in the ALDS. Their season was a success on many fronts, as they found three youngsters, pitchers John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and second baseman Alexis Ramirez, amongst an aging squad that will make them a productive team for years to come. With a resurgent Paul Konerko, healthy Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome along with the power bat of Carlos Quentin, the can make a run back into the post-season.
The “South Side 9” slugged their way to the AL Central crown hitting a major league leading 235 Home Runs, but they came in fifth in the AL with 811 runs. It tells you that this was a one dimensional team. Their pitching was in the middle of the pack last season, but what they had was good health from their top three starters, a stark contrast from the rest of the division. Starters Mark Buerhle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd gave Manager Ozzie Guillen a combined 100 starts and most importantly 62 of them were quality. They carried them throughout the season, leaving the contest in the good hands of Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton, Octavio Dotel and closer Bobby Jenks in the bullpen. It’s a deadly combo, even though there are concerns about Bobby Jenks decreased velocity and strikeout rates. So far in spring training, he’s looked, but with the trade of the maddening Javier Vazquez, who’s going to take over the 4-5 spots? GM Kenny Williams has always been good in unearthing reclamation projects, and Bartolo Colon is in line to become the next one. Colon posted a 4-2 record with a 3.79 ERA in seven starts for Boston, but injury problems derailed his season. His fastball is hovering in the high 80’s and even though reports about his location and changeup have been positive in spring training so far, it’s impossible seeing him making more than 17 starts. Jose Contreras is also on the comeback trail, recovering from an Achilles Heel rupture, as his durability should also come under question. There’s no depth behind them and that will put more pressure on the offense. Outfielder Carlos Quentin was having an MVP season posting a .288 average, and hitting 36 homeruns before going down with a devastating wrist injury. The AL MVP was his as he carried the White Sox all season getting big hits every time the team needed it. Another surprising young player expected to produce is Cuban Alexei Ramirez who had a great rookie year hitting .290 21 HR and 77 RBI’s. He’s being moved from second base to shortstop where his tools are better served. He should be fine, but there’s always concern of a sophomore Jinx, and that’s why veterans Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome need to remain healthy and produce. Unfortunately, they’re all entering the downside of their careers and in baseball, those guys can fade quickly. If anything would happen to one of them, the team will be in a serious bind, as the bench is thin with Ben Broussard and Wilson Betemit. There’s just not enough depth.
Player To Watch: SS/2B Gordon Beckham
With Alexei Ramirez moving to shortstop from second base, Ozzie will be looking for a spark plug to be Ramirez’s double play partner. The current player slotted to start at second is 25 year old rookie Chris Getz, who had a very good year in AAA last year hitting .302/.366/.448 and is considered to be a solid player, but Beckham was the team’s 2008 first round pick and is already showing he can hit major league pitching, as he’s been tearing up the Cactus League, hitting .394 in the Arizona Fall League. If Getz is struggling by mid-season, don’t be surprised if the organization gives Beckham a look, if he’s still showing improvement at second base and hitting like he has since signing.
Prediction: Second place
GM Kenny Williams didn’t do anything to improve an aging team who needs more one dimensional players. They’re going with two rookies on the infield in Getz and 3B Joshua Fields, and a decrepit duo of starters in Colon and Contreras. Fortunately their home run power, top three starters, and very good bullpen will keep them in games. They did go 44-29 last year within the division, and in this wild AL Central, that will be enough to stay in contention for most of the year.
Cleveland Indians
Key Additions: 2B Mark Derosa, RHP Carl Pavano, RHP Joe Smith, RHP Jeff Weaver, RHP Kerry Wood.
Key Losses: OF Franklin Gutierrez, RHP Joe Borowski.
The Tribe had a horribly disappointing 2008 after taking the Red Sox to the seventh game of the ALCS in ’07. They were ravaged by injuries to key players like P Fausto Carmona, DH Travis Hafner and C Victor Martinez. They also had to kiss staff ace C.C Sabathia goodbye in a trade for young slugger 1B Matt Laporta. It was a tough pill to swallow, but they did get a Cy Young year from the resurgent Cliff Lee who had a great season with 22 victories while throwing four complete games. With all the adversity faced by the Indians, they did play well down the stretch and ended up with 81 wins.
The Indians made some key moves that plugged up some major holes, and none was bigger than the signing of closer Kerry Wood (2 yr/$20.5 mill). The Joe Borowski experiment was a disaster, and he was eventually was designated for assignment. In dire need to fill the role of the closer, they went out and got a guy who shut the door for a division winning team in 2008 and showed he could remain healthy through an entire season. In front of him will be Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt and the underrated Jensen Lewis who converted all 13 saves opportunities when pushed into the role after Borowski’s departure. It will be interesting to see what Manager Eric Wedge will do to fill the void left by C.C Sabathia, as they don’t have a well established rotation after Lee and Carmona. Right now, the penciled starters are Anthony Reyes, Aaron Laffey and Carl Pavano. Maybe Jeremy Sowers gets a look, but any combination of that trio doesn’t look imposing at all. This is the team’s major weakness, and the only one to have confidence in is Anthony Reyes if he stays healthy. He definitely showed the organization he could pitch when healthy, as sported a 1.83 ERA in six starts for the Indians until shut down with an elbow injury. He could be the key to their season. GM Mark Shapiro also went out and traded for Mark Derosa, but curiously they’ll play him at third base instead of second base and shifting Asdrubal Cabrera to SS and Johnny Peralta to third. It’s an interesting move, as Derosa’s glove is a major weakness, but his bat will help make up for it. He’s an excellent player that can play all over the field, and with this being a contract year, expect a very good campaign from him. The baseball world will be also be looking to see if Travis Hafner can stay healthy and come back to being the fiercest left handed power hitter in the AL. Just three years ago he posted an ungodly 1.097 OPS, but since then he’s ended the season at .837 in ’07 and .628 last year before undergoing shoulder surgery. You really have to be scared about his future, which puts more pressure on All-Stars Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore along with the surprising Shin-Soo Choo (who FINALLY got a chance to play every day) and Ben Francisco who will take over for the departed Franklin Gutierrez. Can they duplicate those years and stay consistent? That’s a huge question, but their offense, bench, and bullpen should be their greatest strength.
Player To Watch: RHP Adam Miller
A multitude of injuries have derailed the career of the highly touted former 1st rounder from Texas. The big righty was supposed to get a look this spring as a reliever, but a minor finger injury has taken him out of the equation for the time being. The organization wants to take it easy with him after the positive reports they got from his Dominican Winter League excursion this past year. He was throwing in the upper 90’s with a dominating 89 mph slider. His final stat line was 3-1 4.24 ERA 29 IP 27 K’s. Very good considering he gave up 6 of the total 14 earned runs in his second start. If he stays healthy and lights it up in AAA, he’ll get a look that may possibly render Betancourt expendable come the trading deadline.
Prediction: Fourth place
This team has too many holes and too many health related questions to garner any serious consideration in this division. There’s no idea whose going to man the bottom three spots in the starting rotation after Lee and Carmona, and the health of Hafner is a major concern. They simply have the worst starting rotation in the Central, but their offense should make them a dangerous team during the dog days of summer when pitchers start to get a little wary.
Detroit Tigers
Key Additions: C Matt Treanor, C Gerald Laird, SS Adam Everett, RHP Edwin Jackson, RHP Brandon Lyon.
Key Losses: C Ivan Rodriguez, OF Matt Joyce, SS Edgar Renteria, RHP Kyle Farnsworth, LHP Kenny Rogers, RHP Freddy Garcia.
The Tigers had a disastrous season last year coming in fifth place. Their down year could be attributed to a myriad of things. Players like the departed Edgar Renteria and Ivan Rodriguez got old and regressed, while the bounty Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski got from Florida in a trade at the beginning of the season disappointed greatly. Those two players were really the symbol of the 2008 Detroit Tigers. Miguel Cabrera ended up putting very good offensive numbers, but he had almost no impact for most of the season. He definitely didn’t make the players around him better, and his fielding was nothing to write home about either. Dontrelle Willis was even worse, as he was lit up like a Christmas tree and eventually demoted to Single-A to get his confidence back. 2008 was a terrible year altogether for a team with a $138 million payroll.
Manager Jim Leyland hopes his team gets back to playing the fundamental baseball that brought them to the World Series three years ago. Last year’s team didn’t play fundamentally sound baseball, as they committed the second most errors in the AL, and came in third to last in team ERA (4.91). What they do have is a true ace pitcher in Justin Verlander, who had a bad 2008 campaign only winning 11 games. The only bright spot for the whole pitching staff was 27 year old Armando Gallaraga who compiled an impressive 13-7 record with a 3.73 ERA. Think the Texas Rangers would still like to have him? Leyland also hopes Tigers mainstay Jeremy Bonderman can come back from shoulder surgery and be the consistent starter that he’s always been. Another guy who will look to break into the starting rotation is Edwin Jackson who was obtained in a trade from Tampa Bay. The fire balling righty has never lived up to the hype he had rising through the Dodgers system, but the Tigers brass must see something in him even although many see him being a set up man. Dombrowski has always liked to stock up on power arms, so we’ll see if Jackson can live up to his potential with Detroit. The bullpen got a much needed boost with Brandon Lyon signing to be the closer, as Joel Zumaya comes back from a career threatening shoulder injury. If Fernando Rodney can come back to his 2006 form, the bullpen may be a major factor adding to the win column. The Tigers offense managed to hit the second most home runs in the AL with 200 and the fourth most runs. They pounded the ball, but it seems like the Tigers went more defensive acquiring SS Adam Everett and C Gerald Laird. It’s definitely a shift in philosophy, as the softball beer league baseball played last year didn’t bring in any positive results. Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, and the aforementioned Cabrera will be entrusted to pick up the team’s offense, but the infusion of contact hitting players does give the lineup more balance. 2B Placido Polanco and Everett will be a very solid duo up the middle, and hopefully that picks up everybody else’s defensive intensity.
Player To Watch: RHP Rick Porcello
With a long season ahead and a lot of inconsistency in the Tigers pitching staff, it’s not conceivable that the 27th overall pick in the 2007 Draft may get a look. He’s been compared to Red Sox Ace Josh Beckett in stuff and demeanor, and so far has really impressed Tigers officials in spring training. He’s slated to start the season in AA, but if he continues progressing throughout the year, and pitchers like Jackson, Willis, and Nate Robertson can’t get anyone out or stay healthy, Porcello may get a look. At the least may get a look in the pen. Remember, this is an organization that’s not afraid to push young pitchers to the majors. The precedent was set with Verlander and Andrew Miller.
Prediction: Fifth place
The Tigers improved focus on defense and positive reports on Bonderman and Zumaya will have a positive impact on the team this year. It won’t be enough as the team has little depth behind brittle stars like Guillen, Polanco, Ordonez and DH Gary Sheffield who collectively find a way to go on the DL every year for extended periods of time. This team may have a fire sale come the trading deadline as they have a lot of overpriced aging stars, and huge economic roadblocks to try to hurdle. And they still have to pay Justin Verlander.
Kansas City Royals
Key Additions: OF Coco Crisp, OF/IF Willie Bloomquist, LHP Lenny DiNardo, RHP Kyle Farnsworth, RHP Juan Cruz, LHP Horacio Ramirez.
Key Losses: OF Joey Gathright, RHP Ramon Ramirez, RHP Leo Nunez.
Since 1996 the Kansas City Royals have finished higher than fourth place in the AL Central only two times. A far cry from their teams in the ‘80’s who contended for AL Pennants in the old AL West, and brought us great players like George Brett and Brett Saberhagen. The organization is still stuck in the mud, but since new GM Dayton Moore has come in and revamped the front office with the likes of new farm director J.J Picollo and added Mike Arbuckle to be a senior adviser for scouting and player development, the future seems bright. They’ve taken considerable steps to replenish the system with solid prospects, and last year they set a major league record spending a combined $11.1 Million on bonuses for their ’08 Draft class.
The Major League version stumbled again in 2008 coming in typical fourth place in true Royals fashion. They did find some bright spots in starter Zach Greinke, closer Joakim Soria, and sparkplug shortstop Mike Aviles. Greinke was the best find, as he had struggled with depression and other ailments before the ’08 campaign that saw him put up an impressive 13-10 record and 3.47 ERA that should give him confidence coming into the this season. Gil Meche will anchor the starting staff once again, and hopes they can do better than the combined 4.48 ERA compiled last year that had them ranked 10th overall in the AL. If the Royals are going to have any chance to compete this year in the AL Central, it’ll have to be by the arms of Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, or Luke Hochevar. Davies ended last year on a very positive note going 4-1 in his last five starts with a miniscule 2.27 ERA. Manager Trey Hillman hopes he can duplicate those outings in ’09. Luke Hochevar will also have to step up and show the organization why he was the former 1st overall pick in the 2006 Draft after a disappointing 2008 campaign. His control wasn’t where it should’ve been (3.28 BB/9) for a pitcher with so much polish and his strikeout numbers were very low (5.02 K/9) for a guy with his stuff. He needs to show more consistency with his fastball command or else he may end up being another Royals miscue. Where the Royals improved drastically is in their bullpen. The free agent acquisition of Juan Cruz (2yrs/$6 Mill) from the Diamondbacks was a steal. It gives them a great compliment of power arms in front of All Star closer Joakim Soria. TPFSports has been a proponent of smaller market teams setting their major league team up with a dominant bullpen, and it seems Moore has embraced that philosophy. If Kyle Farnsworth can get back to his 2005 state of mind to go along with Cruz and lefty Ron Mahay, the Royals will be a tough team to beat in the late innings. Offensively the Royals finished near the bottom third in almost all offensive categories. Young guys like 3B Alex Gordon and DH Billy Butler went through some rough patches and came up a short of their potential. They’re too talented a tandem to not learn from their mistakes and may start to blossom this year. Aviles was a great surprise at shortstop, which had been a gaping hole for the Royals for many years. The acquisition of centerfielder Coco Crisp will help the team tremendously defensively up the middle and with David Dejesus and Jose Guillen flanking him in the outfield, it can only help the pitching staff in that spacious ballpark. Remember, last year the Tampa Bay Rays showed how valuable defense could be to a young pitching staff.
Player To Watch: RHP Luke Hochevar
Touted as a premium prospect for a while now, and after his indoctrination into the major leagues last year, a lot will be expected of him coming into ’09. His lack of fastball command was a major factor in his walk rate and his inability to get ahead of hitters and put them away with his secondary offerings. In 2008 he threw his fastball 59.2% of the time, slider 21%, curveball 9.7%, and changeup just 9.2%. As you can see he was just relegated to being a basic two pitch pitcher and in the major leagues, that’s a recipe for disaster if you’re a starter. His inability to get ahead of hitters allowed leftys in particular to hit a robust .314 off of him. If he can just get ahead with his 90-93 mph fastball, his secondary arsenal will be enough to keep hitters off balance and eventually get more wins or quality starts.
Prediction: Third place
The acquisition of 1B Mike Jacobs will give the Royals much needed power in the middle of the order. With the expected progression of Gordon, Butler and Aviles at the plate, this will make this a surprising season for the Royals. Don’t be surprised if Zach Greinke, with the help of that power bullpen makes a run for the AL Cy Young. Last year was a major step in his development, and we’ll see the benefits of that great campaign come into fruition. This will be a very solid team with an underrated defense and great bullpen.
Minnesota Twins
Key Additions: 3B Joe Crede, RHP Luis Ayala.
Key Losses: SS Adam Everett, OF Craig Monroe.
The “Twins Way” should be admired all around baseball…period. If other organizations got together and agreed on a systematic philosophy that can be taught in all levels of their organization, many team’s like the Pirates would be better off because of it. From A ball to the major league team, all their players play the same way, which leads to be seamless transition once those youngsters get to the big leagues. It was more of the same last year as the Twins came within a game of winning the AL Central. Manager Ron Gardenhire has done a tremendous job teaching and harnessing a young team that competes and plays the game the right way. More is expected this year with Ace Francisco Liriano coming into camp fully healthy from his ’07 elbow surgery. Expect another year of Twins playoff baseball in 2009.
What makes the Twins so formidable is their ability to win in multiple ways. For example: they came in third in the AL with 829 runs scored, but came in last in the league with only 111 Home Runs. Compare that with the White Sox approach of hitting a combined 235 Home Runs and scoring 821 runs. They can certainly out pitch you throwing out the aforementioned Liriano, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey. It’s the best starting rotation in the AL Central and maybe the whole American League if they keep progressing as expected. Don’t be surprised if this staff gives up the fewest walks in the AL, which is always a winning formula for past Twins teams that were headed by control freaks Brad Radke and Johan Santana. Coincidently, Slowey and Liriano closely resemble Radke and Santana in stuff and makeup. Another impact pitcher expected to do great things for Gardenhire is Scott Baker who was given a four year extension after going 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 2008. The bullpen will be tested as both Boof Bonser and Pet Neshek will both miss the season with arm injuries. They do however have one of the best closers in the game in Joe Nathan, and will rely on Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier to be the bridge men to get to the ninth inning. Twins fans better hope Guerrier can go back to his 2007 form. Right now the bullpen seems to be the team’s weakest link. They have enough arms to fill that void until the trading deadline. The biggest concern the Twins have now is All World C Joe Mauer’s health. He’s been hampered by back problems so far in spring training, and the team doesn’t know when he’ll be able to come back and play. His absence would be a major blow for a team that can’t afford to lose him or former MVP Justin Morneau for extended periods of time. Carlos Gomez can become a force at the top of the order along with Alexi Casilla. Both those guys are capable of hitting over .320 and causing major headaches on the base paths. Their defense should be greatly improved with the addition of Joe Crede at third base. Before he went down with injuries, a lot of baseball people thought Crede could be a Brooks Robinson type of defensive third baseman. So far in spring training, his swing feels “pain free” and that’s great news for the Twins. Watch for OF Delmon Young to snap out of his sleep walk and start hitting for more power. He’s come in to camp lighter than ever after seeing that he could potentially become the team’s fourth outfielder, and so far he’s been lighting it up in the Grapefruit League. If he can split at bats with DH Jason Kubel and OF Michael Cuddyer, it would give the lineup great flexibility and possibly carry them until Mauer gets back 100% healthy.
Player To Watch: LHP Jose Mijares
With the unfortunate news of Boof Bonser and Pat Neshek going down for the year, the Twins will rely on Mijares to continue the stellar pitching he displayed last year in his September call up. He showed three above average pitches last year in the 10 games he appeared in, compiling a 0.87 ERA and 0.29 WHIP in 10 innings pitched. He continued his prowess in the Venezuelan Winter League going 4-1 with a 1.40 ERA 32 K’s in 25.2 IP. He comes at you with a 92-94 mph fastball, high 80s slider, and a high 70s curveball. He may be entrusted to be the main eighth inning guy in front of Nathan, so watch out for him this season.
Prediction: First place
The Twins will once again mystify the baseball world with their play, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. The structure of this team is very solid and underrating them is extremely disrespectful. Their starting pitching is the best in the Central and now with the influx of defense and speed with Crede, Denard Span, Gomez and Casilla it will make the Twins even tougher to play inside the dome. Expect them to make some additions to the pen by the trading deadline. Twins GM Bill Smith will make the proper moves to fill the gaps that’ll get them in the playoffs and possibly beyond.
Tuesday's Preview: The National League East
Wednesday's Preview: The American League East
Thursday's Preview: The National League Central
Next Monday's Preview: The National League West
Next Tuesday's Preview: The American League West
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