March 12th- “The more things change, the more they stay the same.”
In the Windy City, it’s said when a league leading 97 wins is smaller in number than the total amount of years since the Cubs were on the winning side of the World Series. In St. Louis, it’s said begrudgingly by opposing pitchers whenever “Albert the Great” settles into the batters box. In Pittsburgh, it’s said in one of the most beautiful ballparks in the country that’s never seen an above .500 season in its eight year existence.
This is the National League Central……and this is TPFSports 2009 preview.
Chicago Cubs
Key Additions: OF Milton Bradley, 2B Aaron Miles, RP Kevin Gregg, RP Aaron Heilman, RP Luis Vizcaino
Key Losses: 2B Mark DeRosa, CF Jim Edmonds, CF Felix Pie, SS Ronny Cedeno, SP Jason Marquis, SP Rich Hill, RP Kerry Wood, RP Michael Wuertz
Despite being the best team in baseball in 2008, the Cubs saw their season end disappointingly in the NLDS. After being easily swept aside by the Dodgers, the 97-win regular season was quickly forgotten. A barrage of moves made in the offseason may have weakened the club, but they’re still in the NL Central so the returning talent should easily carry them to another division crown. Moving dominant set-up man Carlos Marmol into the closer role to replace Kerry Wood is an easy decision. They lose no value with this change, and will probably get a superior performance than had they kept Wood. The other bullpen pieces they added are likely to be among the best weapons available to manager Lou Piniella as well. Adding Vizcaino, Gregg and Heilman to young fireballer Jeff Samardzija gives the club a potentially dominant bullpen.
While many fans will undoubtedly be disappointed by the team’s failure to land Jake Peavy via trade this winter, the rotation remains nearly intact for a staff who’s starters posted a league best 3.75 ERA in 2008. The departure of fifth starter Marquis won’t hurt them at all, as a full season of Rich Harden (at least as full as he can provide) and increased innings from Sean Marshall will more than make up for his absence. It’s foolish to expect another sub-3.00 ERA from Ryan Dempster, but again, more starts from potential Cy Young contender Harden will go a long way towards making up any lost value. The question with Harden has never been his talent, but rather his durability. There is reason for optimism on the North Side though. His 148 innings in 2008, spread between the Cubs and A’s, were his most since 2004 in Oakland. If he can come in around 150 innings again, with an ERA anywhere near last year’s absurd 2.07, the Cubs will have a true ace starter to pair with the durable and frequently ace-like Carlos Zambrano.
Like the rotation, the offense returns in 2009 with only minor changes. Trading away second baseman and super utility man Mark DeRosa will certainly cost them depth at several positions, but they smartly used the money saved to bring in the immensely talented, if oft-injured, Milton Bradley. Even more than the .900+ OPS he brings with him, Bradley also provides a much needed lefty bat to a heavily right handed lineup. Adding Bradley’s talent in the middle of a lineup already featuring Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Derek Lee and Geovany Soto should strike fear in the hearts of NL Central pitchers.
Player To Watch: Aaron Heilman
Much maligned in New York for his parts in recent September collapses, Heilman will look to recharge his career as he moves west to Chicago. His disappointing 2008 notwithstanding, Heilman has been a very reliable pitcher, posting an ERA of 3.27 from 2005-2007. Any time missed by Harden or Marshall may also provide Heilman with the opportunity to start again, something didn’t give him the past two season, despite some success in the role in early 2006.
Prediction: First Place
An absolutely loaded roster, while not as dominant as in 2008, will easily lead the Cubs to their third consecutive division crown. If Harden and Bradley are healthy in October, the Cubs will finally end their fans suffering and bring home a World Series championship.
Cincinnati Reds
Key Additions: OF Willie Taveras, OF Jonny Gomes, C Ramon Hernandez,
Key Losses: OF Adam Dunn, OF Ken Griffey Jr., CF Corey Patterson, C Paul Bako, SP Josh Fogg, RP Jeremey Affeldt
Last season in Cincy may have resulted in another finish near the bottom of the division, but 2008 saw the emergence of a handful of future stars and finally gives their fan base some hope for the near future. Edinson Volquez, acquired from Texas, exploded on the scene and was an early favorite for the Cy Young. He won’t duplicate last year’s success, but the 25-year old future ace will again be a productive starter for a rotation long in need of depth. He will combine with Aaron Harang, Bronson Aroyo and fellow youngster Johnny Cueto to give the Reds the best front four of a rotation they’ve had in nearly a decade. Harang is due for a rebound after an incredibly disappointing 2008. Reportedly clear of the forearm problems that hampered him last year, he should return to his sub-4.00 ERA self of the previous two seasons. The fifth spot in the rotation will be divided between once-promising prospect Homer Bailey and 2008 acquisition Micah Owings. Bailey, once a regular on top prospect lists, has never been able to live up to the hype in the majors, and last season’s 7.93 ERA suggests that he isn’t particularly close to turning the corner. He’s just 23 years old, so it would be unwise to completely give up on a player with the physical talent Bailey possesses. Should the unthinkable happen and he learns how to pitch to the count and the situation, he could play a significant role in the Reds potential run towards postseason contention.
The hope seen in the rotation is counteracted by an ugly situation in the bullpen. It will again be anchored by Francisco Cordero, who will continue to rack up the saves while making the organization regret the 4-year/$42M deal they gave him before last season. No one else in the pen, outside of lefty Bill Bray, inspires a great deal of confidence, and it will clearly be the weakness of the team. Departed lefty Jeremy Affeldt was the arguably the team’s most reliable relief pitcher, never mind his continual misuse by manager Dusty Baker.
The lineup was bolstered in 2008 by the arrivals of future franchise cornerstones Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. First baseman Votto was the team’s most productive bat in 2008 and should be again this year. The duo joins Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips and Chris Dickerson to form one of the most talented corps of youngsters in the game. The ultimate success of the offense may rely heavily on decisions made by Baker regarding the rest of the roster. The club did win in saying goodbye to Corey Patterson this winter, but were back to square one with the addition of Willie Taveras as the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter. That any team in this day and age would legitimately consider giving the most at-bats on the team to a powerless player with a below average OBP is discouraging. The team doesn’t have a particularly obvious solution to fill the leadoff spot, but a player more suitable to the 8th spot is clearly the wrong choice.
Player To Watch: Chris Dickerson
The breakout seasons of Votto and Bruce overshadowed the explosive debut by Dickerson upon his August call-up. In his first foray against major league pitching, he mashed to the tune of .304/.413/.608 in 122 plate appearances. That line is unsustainable, but the powerful speedster should be the team’s opening day left fielder. Unfortunately, Dusty Baker’s history with young players might not give Reds fans that pleasure.
Prediction: Second Place
The Reds will have their first season above .500 since 2000. They will fall short of the postseason, but they will announce themselves as the NL Central’s team of the future.
Houston Astros
Key Additions: 3B Aaron Boone, SP Mike Hampton
Key Losses: 3B Ty Wiggington, 2B Mark Loretta, C Brad Ausmus, SP Randy Wolf
For a team so recently in contention, it’s surprising to see the Astros in such disarray. 2008’s 86 win finish hides a team that was outscored by 30 runs, good for a Pythagorean projection (expected W-L record based on RS and RA) of nine fewer wins. That Aaron Boone, a back-up caliber infielder, was the team’s big offseason acquisition says plenty about the clubs own internal expectations. It makes one feel sorry for Lance Berkman that he will spend his prime mired in the bottom of the division. Regardless, Big Puma will continue to rake at near-MVP levels while the offense around him sputters. Outside of the overrated Carlos Lee, the aging Miguel Tejada and defensive star Hunter Pence the offensive borders on the lifeless. A foursome of Ruth, Bonds, Gehrig and Musial wouldn’t be good enough to carry a line-up that otherwise features Kaz Matsui as its best hitter. The offensive struggles are highlighted by the struggles of JR Towles. The once highly touted catching prospect had a worse than disappointing debut, hitting an abysmal .137/.250/.253 in 171 PA. When your catcher of the future, and top prospect, is hitting worse than Brad Ausmus, your team is in serious trouble.
As dismal as the offensive outlook is, the situation throughout the pitching staff is nearly as ugly. The starting rotation features two solid contributors and three empty spots. The consistently strong Roy Oswalt headlines the duo, and will be backed up by a solid #2 pitcher in Wandy Rodriguez. At this point though, all hope is lost. A major league team should not be starting Brandon Backe and Brian Mohler 50 times a season. Most triple-A teams shouldn’t either for that matter. If they can coax 100 innings from the ever fragile Mike Hampton they may avoid complete embarrassment.
Jose Valverde won’t have many save opportunities in 2009, but the eccentric closer be ready when called upon. Latroy Hawkins and Chris Sampson will provide him with support, but like the rest of the team, the bullpen too is a weak point.
Player To Watch: N/A
That’s right, not available. If there is anything more disappointing than the state of the major league club it’s the state of the farm system. Last year’s top two prospects, Towles and Felipe Paulino both violently spiraled downward. Towles simply couldn’t hit while Paulino couldn’t stay healthy, facing a total of four batters in 2008. The next best prospect in the system is 2008 draftee Jason Castro, another catcher. Unfortunately he won’t be anywhere near ready to contribute the big league club for a few years.
Prediction: Fifth Place
After breaching the outskirts of wild card contention a year ago, Houston will be in an even closer race this season with Pittsburgh. Unfortunately this race will be to avoid 100 losses and the designation of worst team in baseball.
Milwaukee Brewers
Key Additions: SP Braden Looper, RP RJ Swindle, RP Trevor Hoffman
Key Losses: 3B Russell Branyan, 2B Ray Durham, SP C.C. Sabathia, SP Ben Sheets, RP Solomon Torres, RP Guillermo Mota,
The most exciting and successful season in over 15 years ended meekly in the NLDS as the both offense and late-season acquisition C.C. Sabathia all but disappeared against the Phillies. Sabathia can’t really be blamed though, after doing everything humanly possible as he carried the franchise to their first postseason since 1982. That postseason breakthrough ultimately qualifies the season as a success, although the 2009 version of the team will be hard-pressed to contend again.
The loss of Sabathia and fellow ace Ben Sheets will be mitigated, at least in part, by the return of potential superstar Yovani Gallardo from 2008’s torn ACL. After returning late last season, the 23-year-old showed no ill effects from the injury and should return at full strength in 2009. The 23-year-old will head up a rotation which looks highly questionable behind himself and Manny Parra. The offseason addition of Braden Looper will provide them with a much needed innings eater at the back of the rotation, but little else in the way of a positive contribution. Equally tempered expectations exist for the soft tossing Jeff Suppan and up-and-down Dave Bush in the middle of the rotation. A fairly well stocked farm system may again provide the necessary ammunition for another midseason acquisition should the club find themselves in contention again.
The loss at the front of the rotation was compounded by the sudden retirement of closer Solomon Torres in November. The club countered by adding future Hall Of Famer Trevor Hoffman over the winter, and the all-time saves leader will be a solid anchor to an otherwise uninspiring bullpen. Outside of reliever turned starter turned reliever again Carlos Villanueva, the rest of the unit will struggle to hold leads until Hells Bells blares from the Miller Park speakers.
While the rest of the team has question marks, the lineup should again be powerful. Any offense featuring two hitters with the capabilities of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder would be imposing, but the support from J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Mike Cameron makes them downright scary. What they may lack in plate discipline and average they make up for in the power department, with as many seven players with the ability to smack 20 bombs this season. Despite trading away blue chip talent Matt LaPorta, one of the game’s best hitting prospects, in last year’s Sabathia blockbuster, the farm system might still provide another elite bat this season. That potential depends on whether or not Mat Gamel can find a position. Like Braun in 2007 he brings a frighteningly poor glove with his powerful bat. He is also currently blocked at both corner outfield positions and first base. Should either Corey Hart or Bill Hall struggle early on, the Brewers might decide to live with Gamel’s almost certain horde of errors and add another young power hitter to the lineup.
Player To Watch: Rickie Weeks
Without a contributor sure to emerge from the minors, attention turns to the immensely talented and consistently frustrating Weeks. After battling injuries last year the gifted second baseman will hope to see a return to his 2007 offensive production, and with it his status a future star. The one highlight of last season was a dramatic increase in his defensive value, as he grew into a legitimate infield defender and should ward of suggestions of a move to center field in order to make room for top prospect Alcides Escobar.
Prediction: Fourth Place
Last year’s success will be short lived as question marks in the bullpen and starting rotation will overshadow the potent offense. They will hover around .500 and trade rumors will swirl all year long around Fielder, Hardy, Hart or any other starter being pushed by younger, cheaper talent.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Key Additions: 3B Eric Hinske, 1B Andy Phillips, OF Jeff Salazar
Key Losses: OF Jason Michaels, 1B Doug Mienkiewicz, C Ronny Paulino
The Pirates might be the worst team in professional sports. 2008 marked their 16th consecutive losing season, a stat that hardly flies in the face of the first statement. If there is a positive to take away from that disappointment, it is the renewed vigor and increased competency in the new front office. New hires Neil Hunnington and Frank Coonelly, as GM and President respectively, have quickly reversed the ships course. They went into full scale rebuild mode with the trades of Jason Bay, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte during the season. More importantly, they drastically changed the franchises historically poor draft history when they opted for the more expensive, high-ceiling talent as opposed to the easily signable known commodities, a plan which netted them bust after bust in recent seasons.
The 2009 team will have a few bright spots, as Ryan Doumit and Nate McClouth come off breakout seasons. At 28, Doumit was finally allowed to catch full time and he didn’t disappoint, delivering an .858 OPS. While he is unlikely to match his power output from a year ago, he has solidified the catcher position in Pittsburgh. McClouth was arguably the breakout star in the entire league last year, highlighted by a game-saving assist in the 11th inning of the All-Star Game. He is a productive hitter, fan favorite, and max effort defensive player, the latter earning him a Gold Glove in 2008. He’ll remain in center this season, but he’ll shift to a corner spot when the highly touted Andrew McCutchen eventually gets promoted.
Like the offense, the rotation got its own breakout performance. Lefty Paul Maholm dropped his ERA by over a full run between 2007 and 2008. Unfortunately, his improvement was outweighed by the tumbles of Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny. Even if unimpressive, the rotation should be at least be reliable. The bullpen, after you get past closer Matt Capps, isn’t as lucky. One of the prize returns of the Bay trade was Craig Hansen from Boston. After the move, Hansen was a major disappointment. The 25-year-old righty, once a top Red Sox prospect, was shelled in Pittsburgh. He saw his ERA balloon to 7.45 in his 16 appearances after the trade. The bullpen will be a main contributor as the staff marches towards 900 runs allowed in 2009.
Player To Watch: The Farm System
There isn’t one particular player who is expected to contribute in 2009, but there are a handful expected to make enough progress that they’ll compete for starting jobs in 2010. Led by five-tool prospect McCutchen and the 2008 Draft’s #2 overall selection Pedro Alvarez, the future looks bright in Pittsburgh. Add these two to Jose Tabatta, the divisive, streaky and talented outfielder acquired when the team sent Nady to the Yankees and the Pirates finally have a legitimately solid farm system.
Prediction: Sixth Place
The changes made to the franchise won’t be visible on the field in 2009 and the club looks headed towards a 17th consecutive season below .500.
St. Louis Cardinals
Key Additions: SS Khalil Greene, RP Trever Miller, RP Deney Reyes
Key Losses: 2B Aaron Miles, 2B Adam Kennedy, 2B Felipe Lopez, SS Cezar Izturis, SP Braden Looper, RP Jason Isringhausen, RP Russ Springer, RP Mark Worrell
The Cardinals are a one-man team. But when that one man is potentially the greatest right handed hitter of all-time, the situation isn’t as dire as it sounds. That man, of course, is Albert Pujols. At 29 years old, Pujols had his best season yet, setting career marks in both OBP and OPS. He may not match 2008’s insane output, but as long as his elbow remains in one piece he’ll again be the best player in baseball. After getting breakout seasons from outfielders Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick in 2008, the Cards are hoping for repeat performances to give their perennial MVP candidate some offensive support. This winter the club did manage to improve their most glaring hole in the lineup when they acquired disgruntled Padres shortstop Khali Greene in exchange for almost nothing of value (reliever Mark Worrell and a player to be named). Greene should thrive outside of Petco Park, where he saw his OPS take a dive of 150 points over his career, compared to on the road. Even a marginal bounce back season will be welcome on a team that got exactly one HR and a meager .268/.319/.316 line from its shortstops in 2008. Top prospect Colby Rasmus will also arrive in St. Louis at some point this season and has the five-tool ability to take over the center field job upon his eventual promotion.
The bullpen will again be a strong point of the team despite losing Isringhausen, Springer and Worrell over the winter. Late season performances of young power arms Chris Perez and Jason Motte last year convinced the team to allow their closer to walk and forego signing any of the big name closers available on the free agent market. It may be a closer by committee system with Perez, Motte and recently signed Dennys Reyes all capable of locking down victories for the team if called upon. Other pen members Ryan Franklin, Trever Miller, Josh Kinney and Kyle McClellan are all solid options for manager Tony LaRussa.
As many solid pieces as the bullpen has, the rotation looks to have just as many question marks. The biggest being the return of 2005 Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter. Elbow and shoulder injuries have limited the former ace to just four starts over the past two seasons. He says his shoulder has felt good so far this spring so there is reason for restrained optimism. Anything close to a full season will go a long way towards shoring up the team’s biggest weakness. Converted relievers Adam Wainwright and Todd Wellemeyer were both bright spots in 2008, but their relatively low strikeout rates suggest their success may be difficult to duplicate in 2009. The rotation will be filled out by Joel Pineiro and Kyle Lohse, neither capable of picking up the slack should any one of the front three falter. Outside of this fivesome, the pool of potential starters is frightening for a team with dreams of contention. Hope may arrive in the form of a trade though, as highly rated catching prospect Bryan Anderson could potentially turn into a very nice trade chip near the deadline.
Player To Watch: Chris Perez
St. Louis’ closer of the future burst onto the scene in 2008, using an upper 90’s fastball and a hard slider to rack up the strikeouts at a rate of 9.07 per 9 innings. His pension for wildness needs to be controlled if he’s to become the lights out arm at the back of a playoff bullpen, but the 23-year-old will be given every opportunity to earn the job in 2009. Combined with Jason Motte, the Cards might have the most raw firepower at the back of a bullpen in the entire league.
Prediction: Third Place
The Cardinals will have a steady campaign, but will come up short of the postseason for the third consecutive season following their 2006 title.
Tuesday Preview: The National League East
Wednesday Preview: The American League East
Friday’s Preview: The American League Central
Monday’s Preview: The National League West
Tuesday’s Preview: The American League West
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