March 10th- As winter makes its final push and the leaves of spring start to bud, so begins another season of baseball.
In an active off-season that saw the cloud of steroids thicken over some of baseball's most prominent (if not the most prominent) names in the game, the closing and opening of a new cathedral in the Bronx, and a commissioner who, again, came under fire, Major League Baseball’s 133rd installment is sure to filled with action, suspense and intrigue as the season rolls along.
"6 Divisions, 6 Days" is TPFSports MLB preview of the 2009 season. We'll cover all 30 MLB teams and their divisions while providing you with a roadmap of everything to expect from the start of opening day all the way to chill of October.
Today, we'll cover the N.L. East, home of the 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. Tomorrow our preview of A.L. East will be followed by our coverage of the N.L. Central on Thursday. We'll round out the week on Friday covering the A.L. Central, starting anew on Monday previewing the N.L. West before closing it out next Tuesday with the A.L. West.
Allow us to be your guide to another great season of baseball.
Atlanta Braves
Key Additions: SP Derek Lowe, SP Javier Vasquez, SP Kenshin Kawakami, RP Boone Logan
Key Losses: SP John Smoltz, SP Mike Hampton, RP Will Ohman
This will be the surprise team in the National League, after a disappointing 2008 which saw the Braves fall to 18 games below .500 and fourth place in the division. This offseason saw a major reshuffling of the starting rotation, as veteran additions Lowe, Vasquez and Japanese-import Kawakami combine with the returning Jair Jurrgens to form the staff’s frontline. The fifth starter spot looks to be given to the “re-resigned” Tom Glavine, although they would be better off giving the ball to Jo Jo Reyes, as the 300-game winner doesn’t have much of anything left in his tank. It remains to be seen if Atlanta will fast track ace prospect Tommy Hanson, but when he does reach the big leagues this season he could be in line to provide a significant impact. The bullpen anchor appears to be Mike Gonzalez, but expect Rafael Soriano to take the closer’s role from him sooner rather than later. Former White Sox lefty Boone Logan will look to replace the value lost when Will Ohman left via free agency during the winter. The offense will be highlighted by the difference between the infield and the outfield. As productive as the core of Chipper Jones, Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann and Yunel Escobar will be, an outfield led by aging Garret Anderson and 2007 disappointment Jeff Francoeur is a glaring weakness. One potential brightspot could be the emergence of first basemen Casey Kotchman. The prize of last season’s Mark Teixeira trade, if you can call him that given the fairly meek returns for a star player, Kotchman will look to finally pair his power potential with his solid plate discipline. Expect him to have the best season of his career thus far, and while he won’t make anyone forget about Teixeira, he’ll be a very suitable replacement.
Player To Watch: Tommy Hanson
The top prospect in the system has many scouts claiming him ready to contribute right now. The Braves will probably hold off for about a month while he toils in Triple-A, but any young pitcher with his track record and four MLB ready offerings won’t be kept at bay for long. He’ll see big league action before the all-star break and, barring injury to another starter, might end up squeezing Brave legend Tom Glavine into a spot starter role.
Prediction: Second Place
The overhauled rotation will help the team improve by nearly 15 wins and lead them to the wild card and back into the postseason.
Florida Marlins
Key Additions: RP Jose Ceda, RP Scott Proctor, RP Leo Nunez
Key Losses: 1B Mike Jacobs, OF Josh Willingham, C Matt Treanor, SP Scott Olsen, RP Joe Nelson, RP Kevin Gregg
For the second consecutive offseason, Fish fans saw management unload nearly every marginally expensive asset on the roster. Beyond the broadest interpretation, there is little similar between last winter and this one. Instead of shipping off their biggest names in exchange for premium prospects, they shipped off replaceable middling talent in exchange for more high-ceiling prospects. The biggest loss on the surface is that of 2008 closer Kevin Gregg. As many teams are beginning to realize, paying a pitcher premium money simply because someone has to close games is a foolish business practice. Instead of handing out an overpriced arbitration salary to Gregg, they traded him to the Cubs for future closer Jose Ceda. Ceda probably won’t start the season in Miami, but he profiles as a dominant bullpen anchor in the near future. The unloading of Jacobs, Willingham and Olsen will provide little visible value in return, but none of the trio provides irreplaceable production. Willingham’s production will be matched by Cody Ross, and Cameron Maybin, the crown jewel of last season’s blockbuster deal, will have the centerfield job all to himself in 2009. The addition of Maybin’s immense talent should cover up any value lost by Willingham’s departure. The other move that should give Marlins fans hope is the decision to lock-up mega-talent Hanley Ramirez for the foreseeable future. If he can prove that last year’s defensive improvement wasn’t a mirage, he’ll immediately move into the discussion of the best players in the game, as opposed to that of the best hitters. We’re not sure this will be the case, but regardless, his production at the shortstop position is unlikely to be matched by anyone else in the game. Pairing the decision to lock up their best talent with the equally wise decision not to lock up less elite players gives Miami baseball fans reasons for optimism. Moves like these that are both baseball and business smart are a necessity for small market teams, and the Marlins have been making the right ones for a couple years running.
Player To Watch: Cameron Maybin
As top prospect in two different organizations over the last two seasons and as the centerpiece in a trade for established star Miguel Cabrera, Maybin as incredibly high expectations to live up to. After a solid, albeit unremarkable, trip through Double-A, Maybin got the late-season call up last year and didn’t miss a beat, bashing out an OPS of 1.106 over his first 36 big league plate appearances. The 22-year-old obviously won’t be a star right away, and his strike-outs totals are worrisome, but if he can patch up the few holes in his swing, the end result will prove to be explosive.
Prediction: Fourth Place
None of this year’s moves, or last years for that matter, will translate to an improvement in the standings in 2009. Their young stars of the future are still just that, and will need time before they’re ready to return the franchise to the postseason.
New York Mets
Key Additions: RP Francisco Rodriguez, RP J.J. Putz, SP Tim Redding, SP Freddy Garcia, SP Sean Green
Key Losses: OF Moises Alou, OF Endy Chavez, SP Pedro Martinez, RP Aaron Heilman, RP Scott Schoenweis, RP Joe Smith, RP Billy Wagner
For the second consecutive season the New York Mets entered the offseason early after another September implosion. Just as in 2007, the bullpen was the glaring weakness. The 2008 version of the pen, which was nearly identical in make-up in 2007, went from bad to impossibly bad when Billy Wagner went down for the year (and the coming year) when his left elbow fell apart. Overall, the team blew a league leading seven games in which the led heading into the ninth inning. After failing to make any moves in the last offseason, Omar Minaya did the opposite this winter. He signed free-agent record setting closer Francisco Rodrgiuez to a 3-year/$37M deal and acquired the potentially dominant J.J. Putz in a trade with Seattle. He was able to accomplish the latter without giving up much value beyond depth in the outfield depth in the form of Endy Chavez. The additions here far outweigh the subtractions as the Mets have turned their most glaring weakness into a strength. K-Rod and Putz should combine to form the best back-end of a bullpen in the NL. They will lose name recognition with the almost certain departure of Pedro Martinez, but will make-up any lost value in the more reliable combination of Tim Redding and Freddy Garcia. The rotation will still be anchored by ace lefty Johan Santana, and even if his declining strikeout rate and career high workload are potential red herrings, he will still be among the best arms in baseball. The rest of the rotation, while lacking a second dominant arm, should be plenty productive. The trio of John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez should at least be solid contributors. While they were able to solidify the bullpen, less attention was paid to potential problems at the plate. The Mets still feature the best trio of stars in the NL, and they will once again look to David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran to cover-up the lack of production from the rest of the line-up. Carlos Delgado will be lucky to match his 2007 numbers, let alone 2008. Their corner outfield positions remain mediocre as neither Ryan Church nor Dan Murphy inspires much confidence. Should any of the big three miss significant time in 2009, the Mets will struggle to contend, as their supporting cast is a handful of bench players stuck playing full time. They may regret allowing Orlando Hudson to sign so cheaply in Los Angeles if at any point they find themselves depending on Luis Castillo for a significant contribution. In the end, the tremendous bullpen improvements should be enough to stave off another disappointing season and finally get this version of the Mets into the postseason.
Player To Watch: Sean Green
It says a bit about the state of the Mets farm system that newly acquired set-up man Sean Green is their only player to watch in 2009. They have very little in the form of young players ready to produce at the major league level. Green came over with Putz in the three-way trade between the Mets, Mariners and Indians, and could prove to be the steal of the deal. The departure of most of last year’s firemen clears the way for Green to potentially grab a hold of the 7-th inning role. In the least, the sinker-baller will be used in tandem with Feliciano to form a fairly formidable righty-lefty match-up combination.
Prediction: First Place
The upgraded bullpen, solidified rotation and explosive offense will be more than enough to carry the Mets to the division crown.
Philadelphia Phillies
Key Additions: OF Raul Ibanez, SP Chan Ho Park
Key Losses: OF Pat Burrell, RP Tom Gordon
Coming off the franchise’s first world title since 1980, new GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was content to remain idle this offseason. The starting rotation after Cole Hamels and Brett Myers looks anything but impressive. The 75-year-old (we’re kidding) Jamie Moyer can’t expect to repeat his 2008 resurgence and the duo of Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick are equally unimposing at the back-end. However, if Bret Myers can keep his up-and-down career path “up” for a full season, he has the talent and ability to be a dominant #2 starter. The team’s most dominant unit remains intact from last season as Lidge, Romero, Madson and Drubin are all back in the bullpen. Lidge may have won the comeback player of the year, but for the most part he never really went anywhere. He was always good in Houston and most of the issues with that team were with the management, as last season has shown. His “reemergence” shouldn’t come as a surprise and neither should his continued success. Expecting a performance as great as last season’s is wishful thinking, but he will still anchor one of the best bullpens in baseball. The only major offseason move was the swapping of Pat Burrell for Raul Ibanez. The decision to let Burrell walk wasn’t a poor one, at least not until they replaced him with an older and equally defense-impaired outfielder. The 3-year/$31.5M contract given to another left-handed bat in Ibanez looks bad, but even worse when compared to the 2-year/$16M deal Burrell signed with Tampa Bay. The 37-year old Ibanez is unlikely to match his resurgent 2008 season, even as he moves into Citizen’s Bank Park and into the supposed weaker league. The offense will again be loaded with star power at the top, with the perennially underappreciated Chase Utley anchoring a line-up including Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard. Utley has been the best player on the team for the last three seasons, even as Rollins and Howard took turns collecting the MVP hardware. If not for Albert Pujols, Utley would be as solid a pick as any to bring up this season trophy. Supporting the star trio are speedy CF Shane Victorino and left-mashing RF Jayson Werth. The latter should continue to contribute under the radar, even if he has to sit against the tougher right-handed starters.
Player To Watch: Carlos Carrasco
The top prospect in the organization for consecutive seasons, Carrasco should finally reach the majors in 2009. Much like the Phillies other young ace, Carrasco features a devastating change-up and above average command of all his pitches. While the signings of Moyer and Park will keep him in the minors to start the season, any repetition of last year’s success will require a move up at some point. He’s simply too good to keep stored in the minors, especially if the earlier mentioned duo fail to provide any significant contributions to a team hoping to defend a title.
Prediction: Third Place
While both the Mets and Braves made significant offseason upgrades, the Phillies stood their ground. They will regret this in late September when the defending world champions find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture.
Washington Nationals
Key Additions: OF Josh Willingham, OF Adam Dunn, SP Scott Olsen, SP Daniel Cabrera
Key Losses: 2B Emilio Bonifacio, RP Chad Cordero, SP Tim Redding
The 2008 incarnation of the Nationals was an unmitigated disaster. A rash of injuries and underwhelming performances led to the franchises worst season in a decade, which for a franchise that was nearly contracted a handful of years prior, is truly saying something. Not even a new $700M stadium could highlight an otherwise dismal season as the franchise was only able to draw 2.2 million fans to the park, a record low for inaugural stadiums. Recently dismissed Jim Bowden saw his spotty career track record run its course in 2008, as highly questionable moves were paired with intelligent gambles through the year. Trading away bullpen ace Jon Rauch for a low-ceiling low-impact middle infielder like Emilio Bonifacio hardly screams competence, but acquiring two highly touted young prospects suggest otherwise. The hype of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes doesn’t come without it’s baggage and a hundred question marks, but both were solid producers in 2008. Keep an eye on Dukes in particular. The 25-year-old was able finally able to keep his nose clean last year and hit to the tune of .264/.386/.478 when he wasn’t battling three separate trips to the DL. The recent signing of Adam Dunn to a play first base was also a solid decision, as he will provide much needed OBP and SLG for a team that ranked at or near the bottom of the league in both categories in 2008. Even should an injury necessitate a move back to a corner-outfield position, any production from the oft-injured Nick Johnson will be a bonus. Face of the franchise third baseman Ryan Zimmerman should bounce back from a disappointing 2008 season. He won’t ever reach the ill-advised comparisons to David Wright, but that shouldn’t be viewed as a slight. He will remain a solid contributor in the nation’s capitol for years to come. While additions to the line-up and progression of their younger faces will almost certainly improve their offense, the pitching staff will once again be borderline embarrassing. The fact that one of their more reliable and successful starters from a year ago (Redding) was non-tendered this winter should tell you all you need to know about the lack of quality in the rotation. They added Scott Olsen in a smart trade with Florida, although Olsen will find it difficult to match last season’s highly lucky output. Unfortunately for the Nationals, he might be their best starter, as not one of John Lannan, Shawn Hill or Daniel Cabrera inspire a great deal of confidence. Both Hill and Cabrera are coming off incredibly disappointing campaigns. Hill was once again unable to stay healthy, and was ineffective to the tune of a 5.86 ERA when he did take the mound. Cabrera saw yet another freefall from a once-promising projection. His stuff had never been questioned, it was always his command. Last year however, while he was able to drop his walk rate a bit, it was accompanied by a nose dive in his K/9 rate, as it fell for the second straight season to an unmanageable low of 4.2 K/9.
Player To Watch: SP Jordan Zimmermann
As ugly as the rotation situation may look headed into the season, they may find some help fairly soon if Zimmerman can move from Triple-A to DC. A strong camp may even allow him to skip Triple-A and start the season in the rotation. He has a solid arsenal of pitches, even if none of them are rated as plus-plus offerings. While he’s hardly the type of arm that a franchise can build a rotation around, the 22-year-old will be a welcome addition to a staff desperately in need of dependable production.
Prediction: Fifth Place
While the growth in the line-up will stave off another 100-loss/“worst team in baseball” season, the lack of support from the pitching staff will prevent the team from making any serious strides toward contention.
Wednesday Preview: The American League East
Thursday Preview: The National League Central
Friday’s Preview: The American League Central
Monday’s Preview: The National League West
Tuesday’s Preview: The American League West
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